Top 5 Players in the NBA
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Case
The argument for Giannis being the best player in basketball is simple: he is better now than he was last season when he won MVP.
Giannis is averaging more points, rebounds, assists and steals per game than he did last season, and he is posting higher 2-point and 3-point percentages than he did in his MVP campaign. The Bucks won 60 games last year and are on pace for 67 wins this season.
Giannis’s nightly production is historically unprecedented. He is averaging 29.9 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game and would be the first player ever to reach those marks over a full season.
He is shooting a Shaqian 84 percent around the rim. (Basketball Reference’s shooting data dates back to the 2001 season, the year after Shaq’s apex, so we’ll have to settle for information from the season when Shaq won the second of his three-straight Finals MVPs. He shot 79.2 percent around the rim that year.)
Giannis is shouldering more responsibility now than ever before. His 19.5 field goal attempts, 11.2 free throw attempts, 6.4 assists per game and 36.1 usage rate are all career highs.
The Counter
Giannis’s increased workload has caused his efficiency to take a hit. His field goal percentage is down slightly from last season, and his free throw percentage has plummeted from 72.9 percent last season to 59.2 this year. He has airballed half a dozen free throws and has shown frustration at the stripe.
Giannis is averaging a career-high 4.6 turnovers per game. Some of that is expected given his uptick in ball-handling and play-making duties, but he is coughing it up on 15.7 percent of his possessions, the worst mark since his rookie year.
One reason for his turnover proneness stems from his foul susceptibility. Giannis has been whistled for 26 offensive fouls in 16 games this season (1.63 per game). He was called for 68 offensive fouls in 72 games last season (0.94 per game). The offensive foul is a point of emphasis for referees this season, and physical drivers like Giannis are the ones who pay the steepest price.
He has been whistled for 3.7 fouls per game this year, up from the career-high he set last year (3.2). He has already fouled out of three contests this year and will need to learn to dial it back so he can play unrestrained down the stretch of games.
Giannis’s Shaq-like tendencies are both a blessing and a curse. He can’t make teams pay for hacking him and he’s still not a threat from outside the paint. Giannis is shooting 31.3 percent from 3–10 feet, 38.9 percent from 16 feet to the 3-point line, and 29.2 percent from behind the arc.
He is dominant enough inside the arc to make up for his lack of a perimeter game, but teams still load up on his drives, leaving him vulnerable to the offensive foul.
2. LeBron James
The Case
LeBron is the best player on the league’s best team. The Lakers, boasting an NBA-best 14–2 record this season, are plus-13.4 per 100 possessions with LeBron on the floor and minus-4.1 with him on the bench.
In his 17th season, LeBron is pacing the league with a career-best 10.8 assists per game. His synergy with Anthony Davis is well ahead of the curve, especially when considering how long the adjustments took in 2011 and 2015.
The 2011 Heat were 9–7 through 16 games, as were the 2015 Cavaliers. LeBron didn’t immediately gel with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh or Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love the way he has with Davis. Neither the 2011 Heat or the 2015 Cavaliers had really found their identity to this point in the season the way the 2019 Lakers have.
LeBron has bought in defensively, and his effort has set the tone for the Lakers, who rank second in the NBA with a defensive rating of 102.0. (The Jazz tout the league’s stingiest defense with a 101.8 rating.)
LeBron’s newfound defensive prowess aren’t obvious statistically — his steal and block rates are almost identical to a season ago — but it’s obvious when watching.
His crispness and consistency on closeouts and rotations are markedly better. When the best player buys in, so does everyone else. The Lakers are flying around (seventh in steals per game) and swatting shots at an incredible rate (first in blocks per game).
The Counter
Are we grading LeBron on a curve? How much are we subconsciously factoring in what we’ve seen him do in the past? How much credit does he deserve for being better as a defender and as a teammate than last season, when he was lacking in both categories?
LeBron has taken a small step backward as a scorer. His 2-point and 3-point percentages are down from last season. He is shooting below 50 percent from the field for the first time since 2015, when he had played in four-straight Finals and battled a bad back for long stretches of the season. His 25.2 points per game are his fewest since his rookie year.
(Counter to the counter: LeBron is averaging 25.2 points on 48.9 percent shooting. For 99 percent of NBA players, that would be a career year.)
It’s fair to wonder if he can (or chooses to) sustain this level of two-way play, but the early returns on LeBron and the Lakers are undeniable.
3. James Harden
The Case
Last year Harden became the fourth player ever to average at least 36 points per game, and he has increased his scoring volume this season despite the Rockets adding arguably the most ball-dominant player ever.
Here are the players in NBA history to average nine free throw attempts and nine 3-point attempts in the same season: James Harden. He is averaging 13.8 3s per game and 14.2 free throws this year. Let that sink in.
If he can sustain his 37.9 points per game average, Harden would rank fifth in NBA history behind only Elgin Baylor and Wilt Chamberlain. That’s more than Jordan, more than Kobe, more than West. Harden is in rarefied air.
The Counter
Harden will never be truly accepted as an all-timer until he has a defining playoff performance.
He was good in the postseason last year, averaging 32–7–7 on 41/35/84 splits, but the Rockets lost at home to a Durant-less Warriors team in a do-or-die game. That’s what he’ll be remembered for, fairly or unfairly.
4. Kawhi Leonard
The Case
We’re only a few months removed from Kawhi evoking Jordan comparisons en route to collecting his second Finals MVP. His shooting numbers are down (hold that thought), but Kawhi is filling the stat sheet in ways he hasn’t done before.
Board Man is averaging a career-high 8.0 rebounds. His 5.5 assists per game are on pace to shatter his career best (3.5). His 2.1 steals per game are the second-most in his career, trailing only his 2015 output when he won Defensive Player of the Year. He is blocking 0.9 shots per game, 0.1 off his career mark.
In every statistical category besides scoring, Kawhi is as good as he’s ever been. (Side note: he is averaging 25.7 points per game. Not bad.)
The Counter
Kawhi hasn’t been nearly as sharp this season as we’re used to. Here are his shooting stats: 43.5 FG% (career-worst), 30.0 3P% (career-worst), 48.9 2P% (career-worst), 47.8 eFG% (career-worst), 53.9 TS% (career-worst). Oof.
12 games is a decent sample size, too. He will likely recalibrate, but those percentages are worth monitoring.
In addition to his shooting woes, Kawhi is turning it over more than ever. He is averaging 3.8 turnovers per game this season, nearly double his career-high of 2.1.
Kawhi is still producing, but his efficiency has been blunted. I’d be surprised if he didn’t right the ship sooner than later.
5. Luka Doncic
The Case
Doncic can’t even drink alcohol and is already averaging 31–10–10 on 50 percent shooting. The Mavericks, whose preseason over/under was 40.5, are on pace for 56 wins. Nobody saw this coming, but it’s far from a fluke.
Doncic is quarterbacking the league’s best offense (118.1 points per 100 possessions). The 2017 Warriors — you know, the ones who had Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, arguably the greatest team ever — netted 115.6 points per 100 possessions.
Doncic leads the league with a 33.3 PER, 3.6 win shares, 0.317 WS/48, 14.2 BPM, and 2.2 VORP. Let’s say Doncic slows down a bit and finishes with a 30 PER and 0.300 WS/48 — reasonable given where he’s at now. Here’s the full list of players to post those numbers in a season: Wilt Chamberlain, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Michael Jordan.
What Doncic is doing is remarkable. The level at which he is in complete control at all times is astonishing — not many guys in league history can dictate a game the way he can. That alone is impressive, and when you factor in the fact that he is 20 years old it becomes unparalleled.
The Counter
Like with any new kid on the block, Doncic will not be officially coronated until he sustains this level of excellence for at least a full season. The Mavericks will likely not win 56 games like they are currently on pace to do. How will Luka, who has succeeded in the pro ranks since he was 15 years old, react to adversity? Time will tell. For now, let’s enjoy watching this all-time great in the making.