NBA Early Season Observations

Let’s begin the new year with a fresh set of observations from the new NBA season.

Courtesy: The Athletic

• The Nets have the highest ceiling of any team in the East.
• Brooklyn opened the season about as convincingly as possible, becoming the first team since the ’09 Lakers to win its first two games by 20+ points. Kevin Durant is averaging 28–6–5 on 52/58/88 shooting splits and looks every bit as good as he did pre-Achilles tear, when he was neck-and-neck with LeBron for the best player in the world title.
• If they stay healthy (a big “if” considering Durant’s and Kyrie Irving’s histories and the fact they’ve already lost Spencer Dinwiddie to an ACL injury), the Nets should make the Finals. Those are the expectations when you have Durant and Irving, two premium shot creators whose skills are playoff-proven, plus quality depth. I’m a believer in Steve Nash as a coach.
• Of course, there are obstacles. Although it currently ranks ninth in defense, Brooklyn has some holes on that end. Wednesday’s 145–141 win against Atlanta played out exactly how you’d expect with Trae Young and Irving defending each other at the point of attack.
• There’s also the chance things go sideways in the locker room. Irving and Durant are two of the most, um, unique personalities in the league, the dynamic between Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan is awkward and there’s always the possibility Caris LeVert (and Dinwiddie if he returns) becomes unhappy playing third fiddle.
• Even so, I’m sticking by my preseason pick of a Lakers-Nets Finals.
• Speaking of the Lakers, LeBron on Wednesday reached double-digit scoring for the 1,000th-consecutive game, by far an NBA record. It’s another feather in the cap for the most durable and consistent NBA player ever.
• You know who’s definitely not consistent? Joel Embiid. If I could go back to the time I met him in the NBA Store in New York, I would tell him to get in shape and start trying. He’s so talented that it doesn’t matter most nights (he’s averaging 28–13 through three games, by the way), but there are too many of these plays:

• Embiid settles for a midrange jumper and then gets blown away by Thomas Bryant running the floor for a dunk.
• When Philadelphia faced New York, Mike Breen said, “When he is healthy and engaged, (Embiid) is one of the most dominant forces in the league.” The problem with this statement, though, is that Embiid has been healthy; he hasn’t suffered a major injury in three years.
• This means Breen is basically saying “when Embiid is engaged.” And that’s the whole point with Embiid: he floats through games, settles for jumpers (he’s never shot 50 percent from the field in a season despite being an overpowering presence around the rim) and fails to put his imprint on every possession the way superstars are supposed to.
• Keeping with this theme, I nominate this for worst play of the year:

• The nonchalance on the behind-the-back pass, the laziness to not run back to make up for it, the indifference to the fact Minnesota is getting blown out. I’m out on D’Angelo Russell, who gives Young a run for his money as worst defender in the league without packing nearly the same offensive punch.
• Jayson Tatum is another frustrating talent. He became the first player in NBA history to start a season with consecutive games of 20+ field goal attempts and zero free-throw attempts.
• At the risk of sounding like Paul George, I have to say Tatum’s banked in game-winner against Milwaukee (a stepback 3 with Giannis in his face) was an objectively bad shot. Tatum tried to repeat the feat with a hero ball stepback 28-footer against Indiana a few nights later that clanked badly as Boston lost.
• Especially with Kemba Walker on the shelf with a worrisome knee injury, the Celtics can’t afford to have Tatum playing around like this. He is too athletic and too skilled to be attempting three free throws per game.
• Tatum’s running mate, Jaylen Brown, is playing with the kind of urgency I’d like to see from Tatum. Brown dropped a career-high 42 points in three quarters of work against Memphis thanks in large part to a noticeably refined handle.
• Watch how he victimizes Malcolm Brogdon here:

• That is the difference between a high-level starter and an All-Star, and Brown playing like the latter raises Boston’s ceiling.
• Switching gears, man, what a week from James Harden. After demanding a trade, partying maskless at strip clubs and being put in COVID timeout, Harden meandered onto an NBA court for the first time in months and casually cooked up 44 points and 17 assists, becoming the first player ever to post those numbers in a season debut. I weirdly gained respect for Harden as a result.
• Steph Curry has also earned my respect to begin the season. He got rid of the braids (good call) and immediately the Warriors posted a video of him making 105 3s in a row. Coincidence? I think not.
• Curry is stuck on a miserable Warriors team that posted the second-worst point differential through two games in league history (-65), yet he continues to go about his business.
• Golden State’s suckiness this year will provide ammo to the “Curry can’t carry a team!” militia, but the Warriors simply lack the shooting necessary to compete. It’s disconcerting to write that after their dynastic run, especially when they employ the greatest shooter ever, but it’s true.
• Kelly Oubre is shooting like Spice Adams, Draymond Green hasn’t played yet (it’s not like he’s a shooter anyway) and Damion Lee of all people hit a game-winner for them. You can’t pin this on Curry.
• Fellow Warrior James Wiseman headlines a handful of promising rookies to begin the season. No play better encapsulates Wiseman’s two-way potential than when he erased Mason Plumlee’s floater, recovered the rebound and raced through traffic for a coast-to-coast tomahawk:

• Wiseman fouled out of that Detroit game and gets caught out of position too often, but his shooting stroke is smoother than I thought and his length and springiness ooze potential. He remains my favorite rookie.
• Close behind is Tyrese Haliburton, who teamed with Richaun Holmes to pick-and-roll the Nuggets to death on Tuesday. After finding Holmes for one of his patented push shots late in the fourth quarter, Haliburton looked to Luke Walton on the bench and yelled, “Run it again!” The Kings did, and Haliburton hit a dagger 3 from near the midcourt logo.
• Here is the sequence:

• Haliburton clearly has the trust of the coaching staff already, as Walton draws up action for Haliburton to have the ball in his hands in key moments — to begin quarters, out of timeouts and even in crunch time. Haliburton’s blend of confidence and know-how is uncommon for a rookie. Give me him over LaMelo Ball.
• Ball is going to shoot 32 percent with four turnovers a game and minus defense yet still show up on my timeline every night, and I already hate it.
• Now to shed light on two players who fly more under the radar but have taken big steps this year.
• Mikal Bridges has been remarkable on both ends. He’s 24 and is already a top-flight wing defender, and he’s hitting at a 50.0 percent clip (14-of-28) from deep this season. His 3-and-D talents are pivotal to Phoenix’s fate this year, but he’s shown flashes of being more than that.

• Both plays in the video above demonstrate Bridges’ heightened ability to create off the bounce. In the first clip, he attacks a closeout for a layup, and in the second clip he snakes around a pick and earns a shooter’s bounce on the midrange jumper. Good stuff for a guy who continues to build out his game.
• San Antonio’s Keldon Johnson was impressive against Toronto with strong, decisive drives to the rim. He is an energetic, physical defender who really rebounds, and he’s made 17-of-34 3s in his career (a small sample and an unsustainable clip, but encouraging nonetheless).
• Happy New Year.